A couple of weeks ago Ranger attempted to develop a team dual ranking by looking at the lineups (and I think he did a good job)  I did wonder however, if this could be done by creating a system of simulating matchups so I played around and here is what I came up with.    I wanted to post this now so there could be some debate on the rules of these matches before the next ranking comes out.

- The matches are based only on the current rankings.  I know they aren't perfect but as the season progresses they become more accurate.

- If a team has a weight class thats unranked a rank of 35 is assumed.  I am only using the top 15 in the dual ranking and top 15 in the last team ranking (16 teams) so I assumed most teams have a full or near full line up and tend to have more than just a warm body to fill the weight class.

- points are based on averages for example if you are within 5 in the ranking the higher wrestler gets two and the lower 1.  this assumes the higher ranked wins 2 out of 3 close matches  6 points to 3 then divide by the 3 matches.

- Point Rules

  if ranks are tied (both 35) each team gets 2

  if ranks are within 5, higher wrestler gets 2, lower gets 1

  if higher wrestler is 6-10 ranks higher he gets 3 points

  if higher wrestler is 11-15 ranks higher he gets 4 points

  if higher wrestler is 16-20 ranks higher he gets 5

  if higher wrestler is 21+ ranks higher he gets 6

Ok now to the records

1. Trinity 14-0-1

2. Union 13-1-1

3. Wayne Count 13-2-0

4. Ryle 12-1-2

5. Campbell County 11-4-0

6. John Hardin 10-5-0

7. Woodford County 8-7-0 (beat Seneca in head to head match)

8. Seneca 8-7-0

9. Johnson Central 6-8-1 (beat Larue in head to head match)

10. Larue County 6-8-1

11. Fern Creek 5-8-2

12. South Oldham 4-11-0

13. PRP 3-12-0

14. North Hardin 2-13-0

15. Harrison County 1-14-0

16. Sheldon Clark 0-15-0

Now let the debate begin but please stick to the rules that I used.  saying that Sheldon Clark should be ranked higher does nothing because the rules don't play favorites.

You have the records written out wrong. For example, PRP's record is something like 10-2 [w-l] in duals. You have it written out 3-10.

not sticking to the rules, im going to tell you that tates creek beat sheldon clark and johnson central last weekend in a dual matchup. not sure what that exactly means to you cause you were just doing these rankings with a system prediction, but figured i would tell you.

You have the records written out wrong. For example, PRP's record is something like 10-2 [w-l] in duals. You have it written out 3-10.

You aren't understanding the system.  Head to head against the top teams in the state they go 3-12 based on this points system.

I haven't really taken a lot of time to study out your point system, but the general idea sounds good.  This will be better once I expand the rankings even further (I'm doing top 30 this week).  I like the objective way of looking at it and just letting the numbers work themselves out.  I gave myself a headache going through each dual and asking myself what the result of John A vs Bill B would be for each weight class and each dual.  One change I would suggest is to start with the 16 teams that you think will be at the state duals.  The state dual championship is where we decide the best dual team(s).  Other duals throughout the season are just a prep for the postseason.  So unless you are going to the state duals you don't make the list.  Sorry.  I say start with:

Region 1 Union County

Region 2 John Hardin, Larue County

Region 3 PRP, Bullitt Central

Region 4 Trinity, Seneca

Region 5 South Oldham, Fern Creek

Region 6 Campbell County, Ryle

Region 7 Woodford County, Harrison County

Region 8 Wayne County, Sheldon Clark

Please advise if plans change or teams drop out of consideration.  I propose Two_Cents be assigned the official dual team ranking person.  If anyone has any feedback on the "rules" please do so soon.

I understand the system, but the rankings would have to be very accurate.

The top three teams are correct.

Difficult to do, given on any given day anyone could win or lose.

4. Ryle 12-1-2 and 5. Campbell County 11-4-0 have split

6. John Hardin 10-5-0 beaten 4. Ryle 12-1-2 head to head

7. Woodford County 8-7-0 (beat Seneca in head to head match)

8. Seneca 8-7-0, I believe Larue beat Seneca head to head

9. Johnson Central 6-8-1 (beat Larue in head to head match)

10. Larue County 6-8-1

It is my understanding that the state duals use the rankings in determining seeding.

We want to get it right as to who won and lose during the season, not who we think has the better program or team (if they have all the kids available), no injuries, illness, ect. you wrestle the kids you have on any given night, not what you wish you had.

I agree old school.  And as we go through the season more of those things will get factored in (injuries, grades, etc.).  The problem with looking too much at every Wednesday night dual is that on any given night many team will not take their full team.

As mentioned by a couple of people the records I have posted are only the simulated matches and the head to head was also the simulated match.  I am not certain the rankings need to be as accurate as old school mentions cause I think its fair to say that the rankings are probably equally unaccurate for both schools.

I agree that at any time any one of these teams could beat the other which is why i built my scores on averages.  Take the Union vs Trinity  match up.  my system has Trinity winning 30-28 but there are several close matches based on the rankings. 

90% of the system is done automatically so its easy to change teams to the 16 that will attend state duals.  I could also add more teams to do a top 25 but that will take some time to do.

I agree old school.  And as we go through the season more of those things will get factored in (injuries, grades, etc.).  The problem with looking too much at every Wednesday night dual is that on any given night many team will not take their full team.

With so many team going to the duals format in stead of tournament many teams are facing off weekly.  I guess you have to rank them on past performance and not what they are capable of.  

If you have the region duals to early for Trinity or St. X, they may not be the best team in the region if 4 or 5 of the starters are in football. One of these teams could be put out and come Jan have the better team.

If you lose in Dec you go down, if you beat a better team in Jan you move up.

Its hard to say that team c is better than team d, when team d Win's head to head, it doesn't matter what month or who didn't make weigh or was out for grades or injuries.

Team c could have two past state champions and 3 place finishers.  They may score more point in the individual state tournament, but that doesn't mean they are a better team top to bottom.

With Football season going on until Dec 8th with all the playoff games, we need to push back the state of the season a couple weeks so that the teams have all the kids available. They won't move up football or reduce the 6 playoff games. So we need to self correct the wrestling season. I remember a few years ago when state was in the 3rd week of February not the second.

So according to these rules, trinity would be ranked first? So Union beating Trinity last week doesn't mean anything?

So according to these rules, trinity would be ranked first? So Union beating Trinity last week doesn't mean anything?

I'm not going to say that it changes the results, but I know Trinity has been impacted by football.  As much and maybe more than any other wrestling team in the state.

So according to these rules, trinity would be ranked first? So Union beating Trinity last week doesn't mean anything?

Based on current past performance this would be my spin:

1. Union  

2. Trinity

3. Wayne Count

4. Campbell County

5. John Hardin

6. Ryle

7. Woodford County  

8. Johnson Central  

9. Larue County

10. Seneca

I'm not going to say that it changes the results, but I know Trinity has been impacted by football.  As much and maybe more than any other wrestling team in the state.

But you have to credit Union for the win and rank them higher until they lose.

Orgeon had the best team in the PAC 10, until they lost the QB and lost the final three games. Even though the QB will be health by the rose bowl Orgeon still goes to the you aren't good enough bowl.

If I beat you, I should get ranked for it. No excusses as to why.  If the team gets a second chance then great.

North Hardin was considered the press the team to beat Larue in Region 2, John Hardin, Central Hardin and LArue all beat them.  If North gets health, gets kids to different weigh classes, a kid back for grades or whatever and has a good line-up they still can't go to the state duals even if they have the better team on paper. 

Now I'm not saying they could not do well in the individual states tournament.

I have to agree with Old School.  Union is tough and beat Trinity by 9 points at Harrison 10 way.  I'm sure Union was missing some of their wrestlers and Trinity was missing some too.  They may get another chance this weekend at Central Hardin Bruin Duals @ John Hardin.  I think Trinity will have the football players back.

I haven't really taken a lot of time to study out your point system, but the general idea sounds good.  This will be better once I expand the rankings even further (I'm doing top 30 this week).  I like the objective way of looking at it and just letting the numbers work themselves out.  I gave myself a headache going through each dual and asking myself what the result of John A vs Bill B would be for each weight class and each dual.  One change I would suggest is to start with the 16 teams that you think will be at the state duals.  The state dual championship is where we decide the best dual team(s).  Other duals throughout the season are just a prep for the postseason.  So unless you are going to the state duals you don't make the list.  Sorry.  I say start with:

Region 1 Union County

Region 2 John Hardin, Larue County

Region 3 PRP, Bullitt Central

Region 4 Trinity, Seneca

Region 5 South Oldham, Fern Creek

Region 6 Campbell County, Ryle

Region 7 Woodford County, Harrison County

Region 8 Wayne County, Sheldon Clark

Please advise if plans change or teams drop out of consideration.  I propose Two_Cents be assigned the official dual team ranking person.  If anyone has any feedback on the "rules" please do so soon.

if you go by the bullitt central toueney then it will be PRP and southern

I never suggested that my system is perfect either.  Old School brought up College Football.  Neither Human Polls or Computer Polls are perfect.  I have just created a computer poll for teams.  I would say if he decided to Ranger could use what this system generates as a starting point and then subjectively adjust based on recent matches and known injuries (since this system can't take injuries into account). 

I mainly created this for fun to see what it produces and I was plesently supprised that it generated a list that wasn't too far off what Ranger posted two weeks ago.  It will be interesting how close it comes to the next list he publishes.

I never suggested that my system is perfect either.  Old School brought up College Football.  Neither Human Polls or Computer Polls are perfect.  I have just created a computer poll for teams.  I would say if he decided to Ranger could use what this system generates as a starting point and then subjectively adjust based on recent matches and known injuries (since this system can't take injuries into account). 

I mainly created this for fun to see what it produces and I was plesently supprised that it generated a list that wasn't too far off what Ranger posted two weeks ago.  It will be interesting how close it comes to the next list he publishes.

Two-Cents,

I'm all for a system, we have to give any system a chance and work the buggs out and make adjusts.  Maybe with time and adjustment someone will make some mathamatic forumla with this system that will be adpoted nation wide for high school.

Its a great start.

Thanks :-D

Why not give bonus points for wins.

Seneca did not lose in a duel to Woodford. We beat them by almost 20 and the super duels.

I guess the real question here is. Do we want to try and get it correct?  (Meaning who will win state duals.)  or Do we want to give teams their day in the spotlight. 

If we want to get it correct we must look at the teams when they have their best team on the mat.

If we want to give a team their day in the spotlight then we credit them with a higher ranking even if half the team they defeated was not their. 

Either way it truly does not matter.  These rankings hold no meaning to the KHSAA or determine any outcomes.  It is just for fun.

If coaches and tournament directors are using these to determine seeds and such I would use then sparingly.  No disrespect to Ranger, but if I was coaching and I lost a seed because of one mans idea of who was better I would not be happy.  Allow the coaches to settle this in seeding meetings.

I guess the real question here is. Do we want to try and get it correct?  (Meaning who will win state duals.)  or Do we want to give teams their day in the spotlight. 

If we want to get it correct we must look at the teams when they have their best team on the mat.

If we want to give a team their day in the spotlight then we credit them with a higher ranking even if half the team they defeated was not their. 

Either way it truly does not matter.  These rankings hold no meaning to the KHSAA or determine any outcomes.  It is just for fun.

If coaches and tournament directors are using these to determine seeds and such I would use then sparingly.  No disrespect to Ranger, but if I was coaching and I lost a seed because of one mans idea of who was better I would not be happy.  Allow the coaches to settle this in seeding meetings.

I guess I can't count on you for a write-in vote for president next fall.  And just so you know, everyone's opinion is considered and valued (except for those with karma below 0  :-D) as I prepare the rankings.

As I put the dual rankings together I use the same line of thinking as the individual.  I am only thinking about the end of the season.  Which means state duals and the state tournament.

    That is the way I would like them ranger.  Who will be on top at the end.  That is what we should strive for.  (I'm looking up at the sky to make sure it is not falling in, since we are agreeing.) :evil: :-D

    Example.  Mason Reid wrestles the number 3 ranked kid in the state (I'm not sure who it is).  He looses the match because of an injury defalt.  Does he now lose his #1 spot?  Does the number 3 move up? 

    I don't think anyone would agree if he lost his number one ranking.  So why would a team who is missing 2 or 3 of their top kids be pushed down the rankings for loosing to a team lower than them? 

    I know you won't take my opinion (because I'm lower than 0 in karma)  :-D  But I'll give it to you anyway.  You know I can't keep my big mouth shut.  Thats why I'm always in the negative.

The nice thing is rankings don't determine who will be in the post season like college football.  They give an idea where everybody is at and provides a good discussion when we aren't wrestling.

BTW Ranger I don't have any karma yet so what does that mean?

Anyway on to my version of the rankings based on the updated rankings.

I ran region simulations with every team that has at least 3 ranked wrestlers so I apologize if your school isn't listed.  Also because of the additional programs i changed 1 rule.  If you had 11-14 ranked wrestlers your unranked spots received a 35 ranking.  8-10 ranked wrestlers I alternated between 35 and 45.  Less than 8 a rotation of 35, 45, and 55 was used.  This was changed to factor the assumption that if you have fewer ranked wrestlers you have more of a chance to have an inexperienced wrestler or no wrestler at a given weight class.

After I ran each region i took the top 2 and ran the remaining 16.  (to my knowledge all the locked in teams are in the remaining 16).  I can already hear the "you can't be serious comments" but here is how the simulation ended.  Remember all records mentioned are simulated matches and no actual results were considered.

Region 1

Union County 8-0-0

Christian County 7-1-0

Calloway County 5-2-1

Henderson County 5-3-0

Ohio County 2-4-2

Caldwell County 2-5-1

Paducah Tilghman 2-6-0

Fort Campbell 1-5-2

Apollo 1-7-0

Region 2

John Hardin 7-0-0

Larue County 6-1-0

North Hardin 5-2-0

Central Hardin 4-3-0

Anderson County 3-4-0

Fort Knox 2-5-0

Nelson County 1-6-0

Danville 0-7-0

Region 3 *cringes*

PRP 6-0-0

Meade County 5-1-0

Bullitt Central 3-3-0

Southern 3-3-0

Doss 2-4-0

DeSales 1-5-0

Iroquois 1-5-0

Region 4

Trinity 4-0-0

Seneca 3-1-0

Moore 2-2-0

St. Xavier 1-3-0

Central 0-4-0

Region 5

Fern Creek 4-0-1

North Oldham 4-1-0

South Oldham 3-1-1

Eastern             2-3-0

Oldham County 1-4-0

Kentucky Country Day 0-5-0

Region 6

Ryle 6-0-0

Campbell County 5-1-0

Simon Kenton 4-2-0

Scott 3-3-0

Conner 1-4-1

Dixie Heights 1-5-0

Newport 0-5-1

Region 7

Woodford County 8-0-0

Paul Dunbar 7-1-0

Harrison County 6-2-0

Lafayette 5-3-0

Tates Creek 4-4-0

Franklin County 3-5-0

Henry Clay 2-6-0

Bourbon County 1-7-0

Montgomery County 0-8-0

Region 8

Wayne County 5-0-0

Johnson Central 4-1-0

Sheldon Clark 3-2-0

LCC 2-3-0

Whitley County 0-4-1

McCreary County 0-4-1

State Duals

1. Union County 14-0-1

2. Ryle 13-1-1

3. Trinity 13-1-1

4. Wayne 12-2-1

5. Campbell County 11-4-0

6. John Hardin 10-5-0

7. Woodford County 7-7-1

8. Christian County 7-7-1

9. Larue County 7-8-0

10. Seneca 6-9-0

11. Johnson Central 6-9-0

12. Fern Creek 4-11-0

13. North Oldham 3-12-0

14. PRP 3-12-0

15. Paul Dunbar 1-14-0

16. Meade County 0-15-0 (I also ran Bullitt Central and they had the same record)

Top 4 matches

UNION 28 Trinity 28

UNION 29 Ryle 27

UNION 31 Wayne 28

Trinity 24 Ryle 25

Trinity 27 Wayne 23

Ryle 28 Wayne 28

Anyway there you have it.

It will be interesting to watch this simulation play out:

It worked out for Region 2

John Hardin  7-0-0

Larue County  6-1-0

Region 6  Inverted, Ryle was without several key wrestlers which the computer doesn't realize, and Ryle did beat them already.

Ryle      6-0-0

Campbell County  5-1-0

Only time will tell.

You may have something here. :wink:

I told you I thought it would work out pretty well.  Good stuff.

I told you I thought it would work out pretty well.  Good stuff.

Interesting that Larue and John Hardin were both tied going into the last match with Trinityrespectively.

Yes, Trinity won both duals: 

Trinity 36 - Larue 30

Trinity 39 -John 33

you figure once Frost comes back and everyone from John goes to where they are going they will more than likely beat trinity. that will be an upset.

you figure once Frost comes back and everyone from John goes to where they are going they will more than likely beat trinity. that will be an upset.

It would differently be close.

John seems to move around alot in the mid weights 125-145.

All the others seem to be set.

1. Union seems untouchable at this point in a Dual :wink:.

2. Ryle, 3. Trinity and 4. Wayne are close.  I think Wayne should be higher, but they have Campbell Co next week and everyone should have the full squad. 

Yes, Trinity has the football players back and pins = bunus points, Union vs Trinity could be close :|.

Campbell Co, Larue, John, maybe Seneca: given the right matches could surprize 2-4.

The Key is pins and keeping the score low and close less than 8 pts.; Coach Canter seems to know how to do just that. :evil:

Ok here are my updates based on the new rankings just released.  Again these are simulated matches only and only the top two teams in each region make it to the top 16.  Only one new team makes the top 16 this week.  Southern knocked out Meade County.  Now to the results. (Remember you must have 3 ranked wrestlers to be listed)

Region 1

1.  Union County  7-0-0

2.  Christian County  6-1-0

3.  Ohio County  4-3-0  (Tiebreaker)

4.  Caldwell County  4-3-0

5.  Henderson County  3-3-1

6.  Calloway County  2-4-1

7.  Paducah Tilghman  1-6-0

8.  Apollo  0-7-0

Region 2

1.  John Hardin  7-0-0

2.  Larue County  6-1-0

3.  Central Hardin  5-2-0

4.  North Hardin  4-3-0

5.  Fort Knox  3-4-0

6.  Nelson County  2-5-0

7.  Anderson County  1-6-0

8.  Danville  0-7-0

Region 3

1.  PRP  6-0-0

2.  Southern  5-1-0

3.  Meade County  4-2-0

4.  Doss  3-3-0

5.  Bullitt Central  2-4-0

T6.  DeSales  0-5-1

T6.  Iroquois  0-5-1

Region 4

1.  Trinity  4-0-0

2.  Seneca  3-1-0

3.  St Xavier  2-2-0

4.  Moore  1-3-0

5.  Central  0-4-0

Region 5

1.  Fern Creek  4-0-1

2.  North Oldham 4-1-0

3.  South Oldham  3-1-1

4.  Eastern  2-3-0

5.  Oldham County  1-4-0

6.  Kentucky Country Day  0-5-0

Region 6

1.  Ryle  6-0-0

2.  Campbell County  5-1-0

3.  Simon Kenton  4-2-0

4.  Scott  3-3-0

5.  Conner  2-4-0

6.  Dixie Heights  1-5-0

7.  Newport  0-6-0

Region 7

1.  Woodford County  8-0-0

2.  Paul Dunbar  7-1-0

3.  Harrison County  6-2-0

T4.  Lafayette  4-3-1

T4.  Tates Creek  4-3-1

6.  Franklin County  3-5-1

7.  Henry Clay  2-6-0

8.  Montgomery County  1-7-0

9.  Bourbon County  0-8-0

Region 8

1.  Wayne County  6-0-0

2.  Johnson Central  5-1-0

3.  Sheldon Clark  4-2-0

4.  LCC  3-3-0

T5.  Whitley County  1-4-1

T5.  McCreary County  1-4-1

7.  Ashland Blazer  0-6-0

Overall

1.  Union County  15-0-0  (1)

2.  Ryle  13-1-1  (2)

3.  Trinity  13-2-0  (3)

4.  Wayne  12-2-1  (4)

T5.  Campbell  10-4-1  (5)

T5.  John Hardin  10-4-1  (6)

7.  Woodford County  9-6-0  (7)

8.  Christian County  6-8-1 (tie breaker)  (8)

9.  Johnson Central  6-8-1  (11)

10.  Larue County  6-9-0  (9)

11.  Seneca  5-9-1  (10)

12.  Fern Creek  4-10-1  (12)

13.  North Oldham  3-12-0  (13)

14.  PRP  3-12-0  (14)

15.  Paul Dunbar  1-14-0  (15)

16.  Southern  0-15-0  (16)

:?

If the top two teams per region go to state duals.

Do they seed all the number one teams per region or the top eight teams:?

Overall Ryle is ranked second, how will this work.  Cam Co is number one out of the region:?

Two number #1's are out of the top eight, does anyone know how this will work :?

If so what would the pools possible look like.

Overall

1.  Union County  15-0-0  (1)                    Region 1 #1

2.  Ryle  13-1-1  (2)                                Region 6 #2

3.  Trinity  13-2-0  (3)                              Region 4 #1

4.  Wayne  12-2-1  (4)                              Region 8 #1

T5.  Campbell  10-4-1  (5)                          Region 6 #1

T5.  John Hardin  10-4-1  (6)                      Region 2 #1

7.  Woodford County  9-6-0  (7)                  Region 7 #1

8.  Christian County  6-8-1 (tie breaker)  (8) Region 1 #2

9.  Johnson Central  6-8-1  (11)                  Region 8 #2

10.  Larue County  6-9-0  (9)                    Region 2 #2

11.  Seneca  5-9-1  (10)                          Region 4 #2

12.  Fern Creek  4-10-1  (12)                    Region 5 #1

13.  North Oldham  3-12-0  (13)                Region 5 #2

14.  PRP  3-12-0  (14)                              Region 3 #1

15.  Paul Dunbar  1-14-0  (15)                  Region 7 #2

16.  Southern  0-15-0  (16)                      Region 3 #2

Personally I have no idea as I have never been to a state dual meet before in this state.  Plus these rankings are unofficial. 

Unofficial Yes, But pretty darn close to the truth.

It's my understanding that they split the teams from the region one on each side of the bracket :?

If they seed the number #1 ones only then this would be my guess.

Top Bracket

Pool 1

1.  Union County  15-0-0  (1)            Region 1 #1

Draw in

Draw in

14.  PRP  3-12-0  (14)                      Region 3 #1

Pool 2

T5.  Campbell  10-4-1  (5)                Region 6 #1

Draw in

Draw in

T5.  John Hardin  10-4-1  (6)              Region 2 #1

Draw in Johnson Central  6-8-1  (11)    Region 8 #2

Draw in Seneca  5-9-1  (10)              Region 4 #2

Draw in North Oldham  3-12-0  (13)      Region 5 #2

Draw in Paul Dunbar  1-14-0  (15)        Region 7 #2

Bottom Bracket

Pool 3

3.  Trinity  13-2-0  (3)                      Region 4 #1

Draw in

Draw in

12.  Fern Creek  4-10-1  (12)              Region 5 #1

Pool 4

4.  Wayne  12-2-1  (4)                      Region 8 #1

Draw in

Draw in

7.  Woodford County  9-6-0  (7)          Region 7 #1

Draw in Ryle  13-1-1  (2)                    Region 6 #2

Draw in Christian County  6-8-1            Region 1 #2

Draw in Larue County  6-9-0  (9)          Region 2 #2

Draw in Southern  0-15-0  (16)            Region 3 #2

Unofficial Yes, But pretty darn close to the truth.

It's my understanding that they split the teams from the region one on each side of the bracket :?

If they seed the number #1 ones only then this would be my guess.

Top Bracket

Pool 1

1.  Union County  15-0-0  (1)            Region 1 #1

Draw in

Draw in

14.  PRP  3-12-0  (14)                      Region 3 #1

Pool 2

T5.  Campbell  10-4-1  (5)                 Region 6 #1

Draw in

Draw in

T5.  John Hardin  10-4-1  (6)              Region 2 #1

Draw in Johnson Central  6-8-1  (11)    Region 8 #2

Draw in Seneca  5-9-1  (10)               Region 4 #2

Draw in North Oldham  3-12-0  (13)      Region 5 #2

Draw in Paul Dunbar  1-14-0  (15)        Region 7 #2

Bottom Bracket

Pool 3

3.  Trinity  13-2-0  (3)                       Region 4 #1

Draw in

Draw in

12.  Fern Creek  4-10-1  (12)              Region 5 #1

Pool 4

4.  Wayne  12-2-1  (4)                       Region 8 #1

Draw in

Draw in

7.  Woodford County  9-6-0  (7)           Region 7 #1

Draw in Ryle  13-1-1  (2)                     Region 6 #2

Draw in Christian County  6-8-1            Region 1 #2

Draw in Larue County  6-9-0  (9)          Region 2 #2

Draw in Southern  0-15-0  (16)             Region 3 #2

"southern 0-15-0" were not that we are like 13 or 14-2 we have only lost to john hardin and oldham county so were not 0-15

In simulated matches southern goes 0-15 against the other 15 teams listed in the rankings.  What it is saying is that you get second in your region but last in state duals.

Oh, here it goes again....everyone speak a  l i t t l e  s l o w e r.

"southern 0-15-0" were not that we are like 13 or 14-2 we have only lost to john hardin and oldham county so were not 0-15

Sorry it took me a little longer to run my simulations as its been a rough week for me.  Anyway here are the results based on the January 2nd rankings.  Only two big changes.  Both South Oldham and Eastern moved past Fern Creek and North Oldham.

Region 1

Union County 7-0-0

Christian County 6-1-0

Ohio County 4-2-1

Caldwell County 4-3-0

Henderson County 3-3-1

Calloway County 2-5-0

Fort Campbell 1-6-0

Paducah Tilghman 0-7-0

Region 2

John Hardin 7-0-0

Larue County 6-1-0

North Hardin 5-2-0

Central Hardin 4-3-0

Fort Knox 3-4-0

Anderson County 2-5-0

Nelson County 1-6-0

Danville 0-7-0

Region 3

Southern 6-0-0

PRP 5-1-0

Doss 4-2-0

Meade County 3-3-0

Bullitt Central 2-4-0

Iroquois 1-5-0

DeSales 0-6-0

Region 4

Trinity 4-0-0

Seneca 3-1-0

St. Xavier 2-2-0

Moore 1-3-0

Central 0-4-0

Region 5

South Oldham 4-0-0

Eastern 3-1-0

Fern Creek 2-2-0

North Oldham 1-3-0

Oldham County 0-4-0

Region 6

Ryle 6-0-0

Campbell 5-1-0

Scott 4-2-0

Simon Kenton 3-3-0

Dixie Heights 2-4-0

Conner 1-5-0

Newport 0-6-0

Region 7

Woodford County 7-0-0

Paul Dunbar 6-1-0

Tates Creek 5-2-0

Harrison County 4-3-0

Lafayette 3-4-0

Franklin County 2-5-0

Henry Clay 1-6-0

Montgomery County 0-7-0

Region 8

Wayne 6-0-0

Johnson Central 5-1-0

Sheldon Clark 4-2-0

LCC 3-3-0

McCreary Central 2-4-0

Whitley 1-5-0

Ashland Blazer 0-6-0

Overall

1. Union County 15-0-0  (1)

2. Ryle 14-1-0  (2) 

3. Trinity 13-2-0  (3)

4. Wayne County 12-3-0  (4)

5. John Hardin 11-4-0  (T5)

6. Campbell County 10-5-0  (T5)

7. South Oldham 9-6-0  (NR)

8. Larue County 8-7-0  (10)

9. Seneca 7-8-0  (11)

10. Woodford 5-10-0 (tiebreaker)  (7)

11 Christian 5-10-0  (8)

12. Johnson Central 4-11-0  (9)

13. Paul Dunbar 3-12-0  (15)

14. Eastern 2-13-0  (NR)

15. PRP 1-14-0 (tiebreaker)  (14)

16. Southern 1-14-0  (16) (Simulated matches against the other 15 teams)

I am looking forward to the results of region 5 duals.  With the big changes this week in the predictions based on simulated matches it will show if the system is worth anything.

It predicts that Eastern wins pool A and Fern Creek gets second while South Oldham and North Oldham advance from pool B.

On Day two Eastern beats North Oldham and South Oldham beats Fern Creek.  South Oldham then Beast Eastern in the finals.

I am looking forward to the results of region 5 duals.  With the big changes this week in the predictions based on simulated matches it will show if the system is worth anything.

It predicts that Eastern wins pool A and Fern Creek gets second while South Oldham and North Oldham advance from pool B.

On Day two Eastern beats North Oldham and South Oldham beats Fern Creek.  South Oldham then Beast Eastern in the finals.

Keep in mind the "system" can't account for any strange things happening: kid not making weight or not wrestling due to injury/grades or coaches shifting weights, not to mention the fluke upset.

whoa buddy :mrgreen:

First Eastern will have to beat OC or Fern Creek to make it to the second round and i don't see them beating OC maybe Fern Creek if they have a lot of people out, but we will just have to wait and see on tues. and wed. :-)

First Eastern will have to beat OC or Fern Creek to make it to the second round and i don't see them beating OC maybe Fern Creek if they have a lot of people out, but we will just have to wait and see on tues. and wed. :-)

Good call.  Eastern didn't even wrestle.

South 1st, North 2nd. 

Yeah, I really didn't even consider not showing up (Eastern) as a possible strange occurance.  I was thinking more like lineup shifts, illness, injuries, etc.  Oh well.

Perhaps one of our friends from Eastern can post an answer to their whereabouts tonight.  Seems extremely odd.

Perhaps one of our friends from Eastern can post an answer to their whereabouts tonight.  Seems extremely odd.

I bet they were at the other site hoping to see some good matches from region 3 and region 4.

Nice!

Unofficial,

Prediction for the state dual.

MY best guess of what the draw may look like :-D.

Top Bracket

Pool 1

1.  Union County  15-0-0  (1)            Region 1 #1

Draw in

Draw in

14.  PRP  3-12-0  (14)                      Region 3 #1

Pool 2

T5.  Campbell  10-4-1  (5)                Region 6 #1

Draw in

Draw in

T5.  John Hardin  10-4-1  (6)              Region 2 #1

Draw in Johnson Central  6-8-1  (11)    Region 8 #2

Draw in Seneca  5-9-1  (10)              Region 4 #2

Draw in North Oldham  3-12-0  (13)      Region 5 #2

Draw in Paul Dunbar  1-14-0  (15)        Region 7 #2

Bottom Bracket

Pool 3

3.  Trinity  13-2-0  (3)                      Region 4 #1

Draw in

Draw in

8.  South Oldham  4-10-1  (8)              Region 5 #1

Pool 4

4.  Wayne  12-2-1  (4)                      Region 8 #1

Draw in

Draw in

7.  Woodford County  9-6-0  (7)          Region 7 #1

Draw in Ryle  13-1-1  (2)                    Region 6 #2

Draw in Christian County  6-8-1            Region 1 #2

Draw in Larue County  6-9-0  (9)          Region 2 #2

Draw in Southern  0-15-0  (16)            Region 3 #2

Region 8

Wayne 6-0-0

Johnson Central 5-1-0

Sheldon Clark 4-2-0

LCC 3-3-0

McCreary Central 2-4-0

Whitley 1-5-0

Ashland Blazer 0-6-0

there is also prestonsburg and lawrence county

ONLY the top two team attend the state duals. :wink:

I believe the following table is correct:

Region 1st             2nd

1 Union             Christian Co.

2 John Hardin Larue

3 Mead Co.             Southern

4 Trinity             Seneca

5 South Oldham North Oldham

6 Campbell Co. Ryle

7 Woodford Co. Paul Dunbar

8 Wayne Co. Johnson Central

Top 4 Seed.

1. Union

2. Trinity

3. Wayne Co.

4. Campbell Co.

Then the other 1st placers will be drawn in with the 2nd placers drawn in on the opposite side of the bracket.  Anything could happen depending on the draw.  Ryle

someone should update this now that Meade is in the duels :-D

My rankings for state duals:

1  Union County

2  Wayne County

3  John Hardin

4  Trinity (Louisville)

5  Campbell County

6  Ryle

7  Larue County

8  Woodford County

9  Seneca

10  South Oldham

11  Johnson Central

12  Paul Dunbar

13  Meade County

14  North Oldham

15  Southern

I think you are way off base.  My predictions would look more like:

1.  Union

2.  Ryle

3.  Wayne

4.  Trinity

5.  John Hardin

6.  Seneca

7.  Campbell Co.

8.  South Oldham

9.  Larue

10.  North Oldham

11.  Woodford

12.  Christian Co.

13.  Johnson Central

14.  Mead Co.

15.  Paul Dunbar

16.  Southern

However, with the draw of the pool many of these things can change.  Immagine a pool with Wayne, Ryle, Larue, South Oldham?  Quite a tough draw - which, according to the format of the tournament is very possible!

I think you are way off base.  My predictions would look more like:

1.  Union

2.  Ryle

3.  Wayne

4.  Trinity

5.  John Hardin

6.  Seneca

7.  Campbell Co.

8.  South Oldham

9.  Larue

10.  North Oldham

11.  Woodford

12.  Christian Co.

13.  Johnson Central

14.  Mead Co.

15.  Paul Dunbar

16.  Southern

However, with the draw of the pool many of these things can change.  Immagine a pool with Wayne, Ryle, Larue, South Oldham?  Quite a tough draw - which, according to the format of the tournament is very possible!

I do agree with your ending statement. But why is John and Larue so low. John only lost to Trinity by 6 and  beaten Ryle by 13. Larue has beaten Seneca. But hey anything can happen in the pools right.

John Hardin did lose to Trinity as you said who I have in the 4 spot.  Also, They beat Ryle when Ryle didn't have some of their beasts in.  They will change quite a few things.  I can't defend my posting on Seneca though.  I just think Chuck is quite a coach and has a way of motivating his kids.  Somehow, year after year, he has some very tough competitors.  Plus, Poulton is now in which will change some things from their past duals.

John Hardin did lose to Trinity as you said who I have in the 4 spot.  Also, They beat Ryle when Ryle didn't have some of their beasts in.  They will change quite a few things.  I can't defend my posting on Seneca though.  I just think Chuck is quite a coach and has a way of motivating his kids.  Somehow, year after year, he has some very tough competitors.  Plus, Poulton is now in which will change some things from their past duals.

true but John Hardin  also did not have 2-3 of there better wrestlers that day.

My rankings for state duals:

1  Union County

2  Wayne County

3  John Hardin

4  Trinity (Louisville)

5  Campbell County

6  Ryle

7  Larue County

8  Woodford County

9  Seneca

10  South Oldham

11  Johnson Central

12  Paul Dunbar

13  Meade County

14  North Oldham

15  Southern

I'm pretty sure South Oldham beat Seneca, North Oldham beat Meade twice this year.

true but John Hardin  also did not have 2-3 of there better wrestlers that day.

And John Hardin's kids have all changed weights.  This doesn't always create a better team.

I think you are way off base.  My predictions would look more like:

1.  Union

2.  Ryle

3.  Wayne

4.  Trinity

5.  John Hardin

6.  Seneca

7.  Campbell Co.

8.  South Oldham

9.  Larue

10.  North Oldham

11.  Woodford

12.  Christian Co.

13.  Johnson Central

14.  Mead Co.

15.  Paul Dunbar

16.  Southern

However, with the draw of the pool many of these things can change.  Immagine a pool with Wayne, Ryle, Larue, South Oldham?  Quite a tough draw - which, according to the format of the tournament is very possible!

Wc beat Senca with out alot of people

Ryle and Seneca will be lucky if they can even crack the top 7. Seneca 7th Ryle 6th.

Whoa frogman, that's a bold statement.  I can't speak in complete confidence for Seneca, but I have seen a bit of Ryle.  And unless something wacky happens with the bracket or they are missing a number of key kids they will easily be top 7.  Even with a bad bracket they should be top 7.

what about henry clay... don't they always get a bid since they are hosting???

Yeah they usually do.

what about henry clay... don't they always get a bid since they are hosting???

Does this mean that Region 7 only gets 1 other ranked team or does HC take another regions spot?

Does this mean that Region 7 only gets 1 other ranked team or does HC take another regions spot?

Henry Clay (or whoever is hosting) gets the first open slot if a region doesn't send 2 teams.  Last year I think region 7 actually had 4 teams competing.

Ranger,

Were do you think Meade County will end up.  I'm thinking 14-16.

there is no way trinity is going to stop union county

just so everyone understands that

there is no way trinity is going to stop union county

just so everyone understands that

I have to say I agree but it might be close...they dualed at harrison in indiana in mid-December and UC beat Trinity by 9.  Neither team was at full strength though so it could be the same gap.  UC is a very strong team this year, no doubt.

there is no way trinity is going to stop union county

just so everyone understands that

How constructive. 

I'm sure Union will have their hands full taking that extra point they'll get when they put a trinity kid on his back.

I couldn't help but dig on Trinity.  :evil:

Ranger,

Were do you think Meade County will end up.  I'm thinking 14-16.

I agree.  No offense to them, but the state duals is a whole different level.  I hope they prove me wrong and some other schools see that a team with support can be successful.

I couldn't help but dig on Trinity.  :evil:

Be nice Trinity is a very good team. I don't see them winning against Union Co. but I am sure they will give them a run for there money.

lol that extra point

its cool...our coaches goal is just not to be last...i want 14th at LEAST

Didn't we already have this discussion last year? Get over it, it has been blown way out of proportion... there's no need to turn this into a Trinity bashing board.

Try to stay on topic and please don't feed the trolls.

trolls lol, i never got the definition of a troll, i read numerous message boards and i always wondered what one was. So whats a troll?

trolls lol, i never got the definition of a troll, i read numerous message boards and i always wondered what one was. So whats a troll?

I think this may answer your question.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll

I think this may answer your question.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll

Thank you.

its cool...our coaches goal is just not to be last...i want 14th at LEAST

The State Duals only place the top 8.  The only way you can place top 8 is to place top 2 in your pool. the other 8 teams get 1 additional match after pool wrestling.  Basically, you are guaranteed 4 matches if you place top 2 in your pool you are guaranteed 5.

hey wat do u all think about MEADE making it to the state duals????

hey wat do u all think about MEADE making it to the state duals????

there has been a post about this we are impressed with them making it to state duals (no smart** remark ment)

hey wat do u all think about MEADE making it to the state duals????

Ugh.

who cares that they made it to state duals this is not the thread for that topic but back on topic if you win your pool do you automatically place top 4 or no?

who cares that they made it to state duals this is not the thread for that topic but back on topic if you win your pool do you automatically place top 4 or no?

I believe so.  The 4 pool winners wrestle for places 1-4 and the runner-ups from the pools wrestle for places 5-8.

thanks ranger i thought so but i wasn't sure

if our hwt says it just roll ur eyes and...yea

if our hwt says it just roll ur eyes and...yea

:roll:

good job c its not hard

top ten  :-D

1. Union county

2. Trinity

3. John Hardin

4. Wayne

5. Larue

6. Campbell county

7. Ryle

8. Seneca

9. Johnson Central

10. Fern Creek

top ten  :-D

1. Union county

2. Trinity

3. John Hardin

4. Wayne

5. Larue

6. Campbell county

7. Ryle

8. Seneca

9. Johnson Central

10. Fern Creek

You got Campbell too low, 4th at worst, should be 2nd, could be first

top ten  :-D

1. Union county

2. Trinity

3. John Hardin

4. Wayne

5. Larue

6. Campbell county

7. Ryle

8. Seneca

9. Johnson Central

10. Fern Creek

Fern Creek didn't even make it to state duals.

Here is what I think.

1  Union Co

2  Wayne Co

3  John Hardin

4  Trinity (Louisville)

5  Campbell Co

6  Ryle

7  Larue Co

8  Woodford Co

9  South Oldham

10  Seneca

11  North Oldham

12  Johnson Central

13  Meade Co

14  Paul Dunbar

15  Henry Clay

16  Southern

yay :-D

those aren't even the teams that are going to the duals are they? we made it and i think we can compete with southern for the 16 spot lol

Ok I ran my simulations one last time with the 16 teams that I believe are attending.  If I am wrong let me know and I will change.  I did change one rule now that Ranger has ranked the top 35: any unranked spot gets a 45.

In an odd twist of fate the numbers ended up almost identical to Ranger's rankings.  Only Woodford and Campbell are switched.

1. Union County 15-0-0  (45 pts)  (3 for a win and 1 for a tie)

2. Ryle  14-1-0  (42 pts)

3. Trinity  12-2-1  (37 pts)

4. Wayne County 11-3-1 (34 pts)

5. John Hardin  11-4-0  (33 pts)

6. Campbell County  10-3-2  (32 pts)

7. Woodford County  9-6-0  (27 pts)

8. Larue County  8-7-0  (24 pts)

9. Seneca 7-8-0  (21 pts)

10. South Oldham 6-9-0  (18 pts)

11. Johnson Central 5-10-0  (15 pts)

12. North Oldham 4-11-0  (12 pts)

13. Tates Creek 3-12-0  (9 pts)

14. Meade County 2-13-0 (6 pts)

15. Southern 1-14-0 (3 pts)

16. Henderson County  0-15-0 (0 pts)

Below are the simulated scores between region #1s.  Remember these scores are based on rules and will tend to be lower on both sides than actual scores.

Union 34  Trinity 22

Union 31  Wayne 23

Union 42  Woodford 15

Union 35  Campbell 22

Union 35  John Hardin 20

Union 44  South Oldham 17

Union 60  Meade 7

Trinity 29  Wayne 27

Trinity 38  Woodford 28

Trinity 28  Campbell 28

Trinity 30  John Hardin 26

Trinity 47  South Oldham 21

Trinity 54  Meade 12

Wayne 42  Woodford 19

Wayne 31  Campbell 31

Wayne 33  John Hardin 25

Wayne 44  South Oldham 15

Wayne 53  Meade 8

John Hardin 41  South Oldham 16

John Hardin 46  Meade 14

John Hardin 29  Woodford 24 

John Hardin 29  Campbell 28 

Campbell 43  South Oldham 18

Campbell 57  Meade 16

Campbell 32  Woodford 29 

Woodford 35  South Oldham 25

Woodford 44  Meade 17

South Oldham 45  Meade 15

John Hardin did lose to Trinity as you said who I have in the 4 spot.  Also, They beat Ryle when Ryle didn't have some of their beasts in. They will change quite a few things.  I can't defend my posting on Seneca though.  I just think Chuck is quite a coach and has a way of motivating his kids.  Somehow, year after year, he has some very tough competitors.  Plus, Poulton is now in which will change some things from their past duals.

OK the reason why I hadn't posted to this comment earlier was I wanted to investigate this a little more and come to find out the only people Ryle was missing was Peace and Reid which are the best granted. But notice the score John Hardin 42 Ryle 26. That was a 16 point match difference even if giving that Peace and Reid would had pinned both there guys which they probally would have, they still would had lost by 4 points. You folks do the math.

If Peace and Reid pinned their guys then that would taken 12 points off john hardins score and added 12 to ryle making it 38-30 Ryle, do the math

If Peace and Reid pinned their guys then that would taken 12 points off john hardins score and added 12 to ryle making it 38-30 Ryle, do the math

Very true and I'm sorry I gave you a applaud I didn't factor that in. At any rate this will be a good dual against these two quality teams.

I agree it would be, thats why saturday has a possibility of having some great matchups

OK the reason why I hadn't posted to this comment earlier was I wanted to investigate this a little more and come to find out the only people Ryle was missing was Peace and Reid which are the best granted. But notice the score John Hardin 42 Ryle 26. That was a 16 point match difference even if giving that Peace and Reid would had pinned both there guys which they probally would have, they still would had lost by 4 points. You folks do the math.

If Peace and Reid pinned their guys then that would taken 12 points off john hardins score and added 12 to ryle making it 38-30 Ryle, do the math

We all can play the what ifs.  Below is also a situation if John Hardin had there starting lineup.

All true but John forfeited 160 which cost them 6 points.  there is a very good chance he would have won this match.  if so, this would have made it 33-32 John. also john was wrestling a jv at 119 which added another 6 points to ryle. at worst he would have only given up 3 points which would have made it 33-29 John. If john's 119 won then it is 36-26 John.

In reality, its fun to say what ifs but we will only know for sure Saturday night.

We all can play the what ifs.  Below is also a situation if John Hardin had there starting lineup.

All true but John forfeited 160 which cost them 6 points.  there is a very good chance he would have won this match.  if so, this would have made it 33-32 John. also john was wrestling a jv at 119 which added another 6 points to ryle. at worst he would have only given up 3 points which would have made it 33-29 John. If john's 119 won then it is 36-26 John.

In reality, its fun to say what ifs but we will only know for sure Saturday night.

Chris Pitcher is a very nice wrestler, but he would have faced Alex Pickett who is ranked 4th at 160.  I don't think the odds would have been in his favor to win the match.  Hopefully, all teams will be wrestling their true varsity line-ups and we actually get to see who is the best outside of Union.

Also, isn't John Hardin's JV 119 Kirby Goodwine?  I don't think that is a big drop off from Houston Lundy.  Maybe I'm wrong.

Also, isn't John Hardin's JV 119 Kirby Goodwine?  I don't think that is a big drop off from Houston Lundy.  Maybe I'm wrong.

From the results posted for those duals, Goodwine didn't wrestle that day.

Either way I think it will be a close dual.

WAYNE COUNTY CARDINAL DUALS

TEAM RESULTS

No. 13 John Hardin 42, No. 06 Ryle 26

INDIVIDUAL RESULTS

Weight-Wrestler  Record On Day

103: Wade Holtsclaw 4-1

112: Alex Murphy 3-2

119: Chris Cutler 0-5        125: Houston Lundy 3-2

130: Chris Wallace 1-1

135: Jordan Murphy 5-0

140: Josh Johnson 5-0

145: Jon Taylor 2-3

152: Justin Pitcher 3-2

160: Trint Webb 5-0

171: Aaron Newsome 5-0

189: Calvin Schoonover 3-2

215: Nick Knoll 2-3

285: Glenn Frost 3-2

Chris Pitcher is a very nice wrestler, but he would have faced Alex Pickett who is ranked 4th at 160.  I don't think the odds would have been in his favor to win the match.  Hopefully, all teams will be wrestling their true varsity line-ups and we actually get to see who is the best outside of Union.

Pitcher lost 5-4 to Pickett at the Dragon

We all can play the what ifs.  Below is also a situation if John Hardin had there starting lineup.

All true but John forfeited 160 which cost them 6 points.  there is a very good chance he would have won this match.  if so, this would have made it 33-32 John. also john was wrestling a jv at 119 which added another 6 points to ryle. at worst he would have only given up 3 points which would have made it 33-29 John. If john's 119 won then it is 36-26 John.

In reality, its fun to say what ifs but we will only know for sure Saturday night.

Ryle's 103 pounder also wasnt at weight yet (not sure of the name), Bryan Peace was out, Mason Reid was out and Ryle wrestled up Picket, Hogben and Bradford to fill their slots on that day

1. Union County 15-0-0  (45 pts)  2nd place

2. Ryle  14-1-0  (42 pts) 5th place

3. Trinity  12-2-1  (37 pts) 1st place

4. Wayne County 11-3-1 (34 pts) 3rd place

5. John Hardin  11-4-0  (33 pts) tie for 9th place

6. Campbell County  10-3-2  (32 pts) 4th place

7. Woodford County  9-6-0  (27 pts) 7th place

8. Larue County  8-7-0  (24 pts) tie for 9th place

9. Seneca 7-8-0  (21 pts) 8th place

10. South Oldham 6-9-0  (18 pts) tie for 15th place

11. Johnson Central 5-10-0  (15 pts) 6th place

12. North Oldham 4-11-0  (12 pts) tie for 11th place

13. Tates Creek 3-12-0  (9 pts) tie for 13th place

14. Meade County 2-13-0 (6 pts) tie for 13th place

15. Southern 1-14-0 (3 pts) tie for 11th place

16. Henderson County  0-15-0 (0 pts) tie for 15th place

Just shows why they have to show up and wrestle it out.  I heard a story about a kid who told his coach prior to a tournament that he would place 4th based on his predictions of other wrestlers and their seedings.  The coach replied sarcastically "Great, we can all go home as we already know how you are going to do!"

First off two post up Bradford and Frost, John's HWT was technailly in the same weight class. Frost weighted in at 214 on that day. So the so called HWT match was just another 215 match Bradford got pinned simple. Know on the other hand to give you Ryle fans some ammo, cause gave John Hardin some. Bradford just got out of football so he was winded, MAYBE.

Now for the State duals we tied John Hardin for 9th which was to be expected for us but not for John. Thats to bad for them.

You know what they say s**t happens.