For those of you who do not appreciate my weekly rankings, I have developed something more scientific. I know there has been discussion on here before about what region is the toughest. And people have looked at the number of placers by region and top teams just to name a couple of methods. Well, this is something that has my interest as well and I believe some re-alignment is in order, but we will save that for another day. For your information, I am a true numbers guy. I have a degree in Statistics and spend my days working with numbers and using historical data to make predictions about what will happen in the future. That said, I think the best way to evaluate the strength of the 8 regions is state tournament scoring. All regions are on a level playing field with the opportunity to send the 4 best competitors at each weight class. This actually gives the weaker regions a slight advantage as tougher kids may finish 5th in a hard region. But, the regions that put up the most points should be the toughest. I only have good results for the past 6 years (I adjusted the scores using statistician magic for the years before the field was expanded to 32), but here is what I have found:

Points

Region 6 3,105

Region 7 2,617

Region 5 2,149

Region 2 2,087

Region 4 2,035

Region 8 2,012

Region 1 1,810

Region 3 947

Region 6 has been the dominant region with Campbell Co., Ryle, Simon Kenton, Conner, Scott, and Dixie Heights scoring in the top 25. Next is Region 7 with Woodford Co., Henry Clay, and Dunbar in the top 20. Region 5 has South Oldham, Eastern, Fern Creek, and Oldham Co. in the top 25. Region 3 only has 3 teams in the top 35 (PRP #29, Desales #30, and Valley #32). I think this shows a lot of evidence that Region 3 is not on par with the other regions. I am not saying there are no good wrestlers in western Jefferson County, but the guys are not pulling their weight when they get to Frankfort.

Of course many people will make the argument that some regions are skewed because of the success of one team, such as Woodford Co. in Region 7. So I re-calculated the point totals eliminating the top team in each region and the results are very similar. Region 2 has the largest drop-off (without Larue Co.) and Region 1 moves up due to its balance. Again Region 6 is the dominant region and Region 3 lags behind.

Points

Region 6 2,108

Region 7 1,467

Region 5 1,393

Region 1 1,347

Region 8 1,341

Region 4 1,220

Region 2 1,184

Region 3 756

So I next eliminated the top 2 teams in each region with the same results.

Points

Region 6 1,439

Region 1 990

Region 7 953

Region 5 935

Region 8 853

Region 2 843

Region 4 625

Region 3 576

And again with the top 3 eliminated.

Points

Region 6 804

Region 1 794

Region 8 679

Region 7 635

Region 2 520

Region 5 538

Region 3 409

Region 4 140

The bottom line is Region 6 is the cream of the crop from top to bottom (tough for me to say growing up and wrestling in Region 7 country) and Region 3 needs some help. As of now, it does look like Region 6 has come back to the pack for this season and Region 7 looks tough. Unless some guys really step up in the next month, Region 3 will again trail the pack.

Region 7 590

Region 5 581

Region 2 466

Region 6 403

Region 1 339

Region 8 338

Region 4 239

Region 3 91

Region 7 also has Harrison County which is a high ranked team.

I have done a similar think myself Ranger.

In the past (Before the expantion to 32 teams. Region 6 and Region 5 (They were called Districts then) Combined to make a Region.

The numbers at this time was that District 6 would still average 70% of thier wrestlers making it to state.

prior to this District 6 would rotate with the Jefferson Co. schools 2 years with district 5, 2 years with district 4, and 2 years with region 3. The results were 75% of district 6 would make it to state. Boone Co. and Newport Catholic were dominate in the 80s and 70s. Each have a wrestling state title, but now neither have a team.

Ranger,

This is cool, do you currently coach?

I like this type of calculation but do not agree with using 6 yrs of data.

Kids from 4,5 and 6 yrs ago will have no impact on this years strength of region.

How do the numbers add up using 3 yrs, 2yrs, and 1yr of data? My thinking is that these results would be more indicative of the current wrestlers.

You seem to have a real interest in wrestling here in KY (to put it mildly), can you join the KWCA and get some results and ranking posted?

Ranger' date='

This is cool, do you currently coach?

I like this type of calculation but do not agree with using 6 yrs of data.

Kids from 4,5 and 6 yrs ago will have no impact on this years strength of region.

How do the numbers add up using 3 yrs, 2yrs, and 1yr of data? My thinking is that these results would be more indicative of the current wrestlers.

You seem to have a real interest in wrestling here in KY (to put it mildly), [b']can you join the KWCA and get some results and ranking posted?[/quote]

I concur, encourage, endorse and support Ranger working with the KWCA. Ranger seems to have the experience and motivation to jump start – re-via the web site that is dieing on the vine.

pld - before last year Harrison stunk it up in Frankfort. Last season was the first time that they really put up any points.

I did coach in this state for a few years. That experience hasn't given me a lot of respect for the KWCA. From what I can tell it is an organization in name only. It really accomplishes very little and is doing nothing to contribute to the growth of wrestling in KY.

eville - as far as my methodology, it depends on what you are trying to gauge. My intent was to show if the regions are balanced historically. In any given year there will be fluctuations (region 6 is down a little this season, but still darn good). But over a number of years, which should actually be longer than 6, are the strength of the regions reasonably balanced. I would say not even close. Based on this, it looks like Region 6 is sending #3 and #4 seeds that are winning a lot of matches and probably leaves a lot of #5 guys at home that could have pulled at least a #3 in other regions.

Based on this' date=' it looks like Region 6 is sending #3 and #4 seeds that are winning a lot of matches and probably leaves a lot of #5 guys at home that could have pulled at least a #3 in other regions.[/quote']

This could be the reason why Region 6 has not added many wrestling teams. They seem to stay at 7 every year, since the early 70's. Some teams have changed and they have been up to 8 a couple of times, but those new teams seem to fall out eventurally. (I hope Newport does not fall into this catagory like (Lloyd, and Holy Cross)

I think region 6 is down this year, but is still probably the toughest region in the state. There's just a lot more parity between the regions this year.

I think Region 3 is the best reason for a realignment. Region 3 has been incredibly weak for a number of years. While its good to have similar strength teams in your region, I believe it penalizes wrestlers in other regions who find a much harder road to get to state.

Bravo Ranger. Very nice job.

Also congradulations region 6, us being the toughest region finally gets the recognition we deserve.

I think region 7 is probally the toughest but region 6 is right up there both regions have good wrestlers that commonly send high quality #3 and #4 seeds that win a lot of matchs at state. Region 8 has maybe 1 or 2 good wrestlers in each weight but not real deep the 6 and 7. 3 is by far the weakest their #1 seeds get beat all the time by #4's from other tougher regions.

Awesome Job Ranger!!! I must say that I believe regions have many up an downs throughout there period of existence. Me being a Region 1 bum, I have seen the ups and downs of this region over the past 20 years or so. I grew up watching Union, Hoptown, Christian, Ft. Campbell, and Caldwell all fighting for spots in the region.

There for a period of about 5-7 years this region was no doubt the toughest in the state. If you drew a #4 from this region, then he could have been ranked as high as 6th or 7th in the state at the time. But then there was a vast dropoff toward the late 80'sto early 90's with some of those teams. Then a huge influx of talent with no true team components.

I do believe all regions go through changes, but for the smaller team regions they seem to have more long-term stability. They have fewer teams to compete against, but they have tremendous rivalries that keep the production of good wrestlers to a high point. Just like region 6 has been doing for some time now.

I also wish we did have more people like you working with the KWCA. I think changes for the better are the only way to get Kentucky on the map in wrestling. I'm stuck out in Missouri but if there is any other way I can help via the net I will sure try.

Not too bad for a down year in Region 6. Right now, 3 teams in my top 16 (Ryle #8, Campbell Co. #9, Simon Kenton #16).

Being down to region 6 means only having 1-2 wrestlers in each wt. class that are competitive. This year region 6 only goes 1 and 2 deep in competitive wrestlers.

Many of the teams are looking at being able to place 3 or 4 in the region for the 1st time. Everyone believes that the 3 and 4 spots are wide open, even though in many of these wt. classes those kids will be 2 and out at the state tourney.

In the past region 6's, third and fourth place finishers were very capable fo winning 2 or three matched in the state tourney or more.

This year only the top 2 will probably win 3 or more matched in state. (except 145 that is)